Food and drink · Metro area · California
Bakeries and dessert shops in the Modesto, CA metro area
How the Modesto, CA metro area compares with other metro areas and the U.S. for bakeries and dessert shops: competitors, household spending, official counts and growth.
Groundwork market score · out of 100
Score 41 out of 100: Lower middle
Ranked #268 of 387 scored metro areas
#10 of 25 scored metro areas based in California
- Listings
- 170
- 53 chain locations (31%)
- Official establishments
- 142
- All snack bars and retail bakeries · +22.4% since 2019
- Household spending a year
- $710.9M
- On food away from home · $3,997 a household
- Spending per listing
- $4.2M
- In line with the U.S.
- Listings per 10k households
- 9.6
- 2% below the U.S.
- Population, 2025
- 557,719
- +0.7% since 2020
See the bakeries and dessert shops around any address in the Modesto metro area
The site report maps the bakeries and dessert shops on map listings near the address, by name and distance, and sizes the households and spending around it. Or open the report at the center of the Modesto metro area. Signed out, you see a blurred preview; on an account, each report is one action.
Free10 actions over 3 days, no cardSurvey estimates 2020–2024 · population estimates 2025 · official business counts 2023 · map listings September 2026 · Data credits · How we measure
What this means
As of September 2026, map listings count 170 bakeries and dessert shops in the Modesto metro area. 53 of them (31%) are chain locations, against 35% across the U.S. Per 10,000 households, that is 9.6, 2% below the U.S. rate of 9.8.
Households in the Modesto metro area spend about $710.9M a year on food away from home, or $3,997 per household, 2% below the U.S. average. Spread across 170 bakeries and dessert shops, that is $4.2M per shop, in line with the U.S. figure of $4.1M. That spending covers all food away from home, which bakeries and dessert shops share with other businesses in the trade.
Official counts show 142 businesses with payroll classed as snack bars and retail bakeries in the Modesto metro area in 2023, up 22.4% from 2019. That is one for every 1,253 households, against one for every 1,369 across the U.S. The official count takes in all snack bars and retail bakeries, not only bakeries and dessert shops: coffee shops and cafes are counted too. Official counts also show 33 one-person businesses without payroll. Since fiscal 2022, 3 SBA-backed loans worth $1.1M have gone to businesses classed as snack bars and retail bakeries in the Modesto metro area.
Population estimates show the Modesto metro area grew 0.7% from 2020 to 2025, slower than the U.S. (+3.1%). For bakeries and dessert shops, the Modesto metro area has a Groundwork market score of 41 (lower middle): #268 of 387 scored metro areas and #10 of 25 scored metro areas based in California.
How the Modesto metro area compares
The same measures for California and the whole U.S. Spending per listing divides a year of household spending on all food away from home by the bakeries and dessert shops counted, so it measures the demand for each competitor, not any business’s revenue. Households per establishment does the same with the official count.
| Measure | Modesto metro area | California | U.S. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Listings per 10k households | 9.6 | 11.7 | 9.8 |
| Spending per listing | $4.2M | $3.9M | $4.1M |
| Households per official establishment (all snack bars and retail bakeries) | 1,253 | 916 | 1,369 |
| Official establishment growth, 2019–2023 | +22.4% | +14.4% | +24.6% |
| Population growth, 2020–2025 | +0.7% | −0.4% | +3.1% |
| Spending per household on food away from home | $3,997 | $4,559 | $4,070 |
| Median household income | $81,468 | $99,122 | $80,734 |
| Groundwork market score | 41 | 33 |
Official counts and lending
Businesses
- Official establishments, 2019 to 2023
- 142All snack bars and retail bakeries · +22.4% over the period
- Employees, 2023
- 2,361
- Annual payroll, 2023
- $54M
- One-person businesses, 2023
- 33All snack bars and retail bakeries with no payroll
- Map listings, September 2026
- 17053 chain locations
- Listings at the U.S. rate for this spending
- 172The U.S. ratio of listings to household spending, applied here
SBA-backed loans since fiscal 2022
- Loans
- 3
- Amount
- $1.1M
SBA-backed loans to businesses classed as snack bars and retail bakeries in the Modesto metro area, through June 2026, placed by the borrower’s ZIP code. Official establishments are businesses with payroll; the official counts leave out places with fewer than 3. These official figures cover all snack bars and retail bakeries, not only bakeries and dessert shops.
Population and households in the Modesto metro area
- Population, 2025 estimate
- 557,719+0.7% since 2020
- Households
- 177,874
- Median age
- 35.4
- Homes lived in by their owners
- 61%
- Vehicles per household
- 2.1
- Land area
- 1,496 sq. mi.
- People per square mile
- 370
- Median household income
- $81,468+34.2% vs. 2015–2019, before inflation
- Average household income
- $105,867
- Median home value
- $450,100
- Jobs located here
- 196,740
- Daytime population
- 519,901Residents who don’t work, plus everyone whose job is here
Looking at a specific site in the Modesto metro area?
These figures cover the whole metro area. A site report draws rings around one address and counts what’s inside them: households, spending, jobs, and the bakeries and dessert shops on map listings by name and distance.
Or open the report at the center of the Modesto metro area. Signed out, you see a blurred preview; on an account, each report is one action.
Free10 actions over 3 days, no cardBakeries and dessert shops across California
Every California market ranked →The highest-scoring metro areas in California for bakeries and dessert shops, numbered among those based in California, with the Modesto metro area marked.
Top metro areas in California
| Market | Score | Listings | Per 10k households | Spending per listing | Population growth | U.S. rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Yuba City, CA | 73 | 40 | 6.5 | $6M | +3.3% | #23 of 387 |
| 2Stockton-Lodi, CA | 63 | 219 | 8.9 | $4.8M | +5.5% | #91 of 387 |
| 3Vallejo, CA | 59 | 139 | 8.8 | $5.1M | +0.6% | #127 of 387 |
| 4Redding, CA | 56 | 45 | 6.3 | $6M | −0.3% | #144 of 387 |
| 5Merced, CA | 54 | 65 | 7.6 | $4.7M | +5.1% | #162 of 387 |
| 6Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA | 54 | 840 | 9.5 | $4.7M | +3.2% | #163 of 387 |
| 7San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA | 52 | 748 | 11.0 | $5.2M | −0.6% | #178 of 387 |
| 8Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA | 46 | 1,516 | 10.5 | $4M | +3.5% | #237 of 387 |
| 9San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA | 43 | 2,012 | 11.5 | $4.6M | −2.4% | #257 of 387 |
| 10Modesto, CA | 41 | 170 | 9.6 | $4.2M | +0.7% | #268 of 387 |
Other business types in the Modesto metro area
Each with its Groundwork market score here, out of 100, where it has one.
Food and drink
- Restaurants and cafes42
- Sit-down restaurants45
- Fast food and sandwich shops36
- Pizza43
- Coffee shops and cafes40
- Bakeries and dessert shops41
Groceries and convenience
Auto
Beauty and personal care
Fitness and classes
Health care
Child care
Clothing and laundry
Home services
Real estate
Funeral services
Questions
How many bakeries and dessert shops are in the Modesto, CA metro area?
The Modesto metro area has 170 bakeries and dessert shops on map listings as of September 2026. 53 of them (31%) are chain locations. The listings count bakeries, ice cream, donut and dessert shops, candy stores. Official counts show 142 businesses with payroll classed as snack bars and retail bakeries in 2023, up 22.4% from 2019. That count covers all snack bars and retail bakeries (coffee shops and cafes included), not only bakeries and dessert shops. Another 33 one-person businesses have no payroll, by official counts.
How much do households in the Modesto, CA metro area spend on food away from home?
About $710.9M a year, or $3,997 per household. That is 2% below the U.S. average (an index of 98, where 100 is the U.S. average). Spread across the 170 bakeries and dessert shops on map listings, it comes to $4.2M per shop. The spending figure covers all food away from home, not only bakeries and dessert shops. It is estimated from the incomes of the 177,874 households in the Modesto metro area and national spending patterns by income.
How does the Modesto, CA metro area compare with the U.S. for bakeries and dessert shops?
The Modesto metro area has 9.6 bakeries and dessert shops per 10,000 households, 2% below the U.S. rate of 9.8. Spending per shop is $4.2M, in line with the U.S. figure of $4.1M. At the national ratio of bakeries and dessert shops to household spending, the Modesto metro area would have about 172, against 170 on map listings. There is one business with payroll in the industry for every 1,253 households, against one for every 1,369 across the U.S. The official count rose 22.4% from 2019 to 2023, against +24.6% for the U.S.
How fast is the Modesto, CA metro area growing?
Population estimates put the Modesto metro area at 557,719 people in 2025, up 0.7% since 2020, slower than the U.S. (+3.1%). It has 177,874 households. Median household income in the Modesto metro area is $81,468, in line with the U.S. median of $80,734. Against the 2015–2019 survey, the median rose 34.2%, before inflation.
What is the Groundwork market score?
The Groundwork market score runs from 0 to 100 and compares a market with others of its kind for one business type: states with states, metro areas with metro areas, small-town markets and counties with their own. It weighs household spending per competitor (35%), households per business with payroll (25%), population growth (20%) and spending power (20%), each ranked against those peers. A higher score means that, taken together, the market has more household spending and more households for each business already there, faster population growth and more spending per household than similar markets. It describes a market, not any one site or deal. The Modesto metro area scores 41 for bakeries and dessert shops (lower middle), #268 of 387 scored metro areas.
How can I see the market around a specific site?
Run a Groundwork site report on an address in the Modesto metro area. It maps the bakeries and dessert shops on map listings near the site and sizes the households and spending within the distance you choose. New accounts get 10 actions over 3 days, no card.
How the score works · Top markets for bakeries and dessert shops · All 56 business types in the Modesto metro area
Screening a site or an acquisition in the Modesto metro area?
A site report maps the competitors on map listings near an address and sizes the households and spending around it.
The button opens the report at the center of the Modesto metro area. Signed out, you see a blurred preview; on an account, each report is one action.
This product uses the Census Bureau Data API but is not endorsed or certified by the Census Bureau.
Figures are estimates for research only. Not investment or real estate advice.