Food and drink · Metro area · Arizona
Bakeries and dessert shops in the Flagstaff, AZ metro area
The bakeries and dessert shops in the Flagstaff, AZ metro area, the household spending behind them and how the market ranks against other metro areas.
Groundwork market score · out of 100
Score 36 out of 100: Lower middle
Ranked #301 of 387 scored metro areas
#7 of 7 scored metro areas based in Arizona
- Listings
- 49
- 16 chain locations (33%)
- Official establishments
- 47
- All snack bars and retail bakeries · +42.4% since 2019
- Household spending a year
- $210.8M
- On food away from home · $3,824 a household
- Spending per listing
- $4.3M
- 4% above the U.S.
- Listings per 10k households
- 8.9
- 9% below the U.S.
- Population, 2025
- 144,368
- −0.6% since 2020
See the bakeries and dessert shops around any address in the Flagstaff metro area
The site report maps the bakeries and dessert shops on map listings near the address, by name and distance, and sizes the households and spending around it. Or open the report at the center of the Flagstaff metro area. Signed out, you see a blurred preview; on an account, each report is one action.
Free10 actions over 3 days, no cardSurvey estimates 2020–2024 · population estimates 2025 · official business counts 2023 · map listings September 2026 · Data credits · How we measure
What this means
For bakeries and dessert shops, the Flagstaff metro area has a Groundwork market score of 36 (lower middle): #301 of 387 scored metro areas and #7 of 7 scored metro areas based in Arizona. That puts it in the bottom quarter of metro areas.
Map listings as of September 2026 show 49 bakeries and dessert shops in the Flagstaff metro area. 16 of them (33%) are chain locations, against 35% across the U.S. That is 8.9 per 10,000 households, 9% below the U.S. rate of 9.8.
Households in the Flagstaff metro area spend about $210.8M a year on food away from home, or $3,824 per household, 6% below the U.S. average. That works out to $4.3M per shop, 4% above the U.S. figure of $4.1M. That spending covers all food away from home, which bakeries and dessert shops share with other businesses in the trade.
The official count of businesses with payroll classed as snack bars and retail bakeries in the Flagstaff metro area was 47 in 2023, up 42.4% from 2019. That is one for every 1,173 households, against one for every 1,369 across the U.S. The official count takes in all snack bars and retail bakeries, not only bakeries and dessert shops: coffee shops and cafes are counted too. Since fiscal 2022, 1 SBA-backed loan worth $714K has gone to businesses classed as snack bars and retail bakeries in the Flagstaff metro area. Population estimates show the Flagstaff metro area declined 0.6% from 2020 to 2025, against +3.1% for the U.S.
How the Flagstaff metro area compares
The same measures for Arizona and the whole U.S. Spending per listing divides a year of household spending on all food away from home by the bakeries and dessert shops counted, so it measures the demand for each competitor, not any business’s revenue. Households per establishment does the same with the official count.
| Measure | Flagstaff metro area | Arizona | U.S. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Listings per 10k households | 8.9 | 7.9 | 9.8 |
| Spending per listing | $4.3M | $5.1M | $4.1M |
| Households per official establishment (all snack bars and retail bakeries) | 1,173 | 1,555 | 1,369 |
| Official establishment growth, 2019–2023 | +42.4% | +35.7% | +24.6% |
| Population growth, 2020–2025 | −0.6% | +6.1% | +3.1% |
| Spending per household on food away from home | $3,824 | $3,982 | $4,070 |
| Median household income | $72,966 | $79,964 | $80,734 |
| Groundwork market score | 36 | 69 |
Official counts and lending
Businesses
- Official establishments, 2019 to 2023
- 47All snack bars and retail bakeries · +42.4% over the period
- Employees, 2023
- 537
- Annual payroll, 2023
- $13.1M
- One-person businesses, 2023
- 6All snack bars and retail bakeries with no payroll
- Map listings, September 2026
- 4916 chain locations
- Listings at the U.S. rate for this spending
- 51The U.S. ratio of listings to household spending, applied here
SBA-backed loans since fiscal 2022
- Loans
- 1
- Amount
- $714K
SBA-backed loans to businesses classed as snack bars and retail bakeries in the Flagstaff metro area, through June 2026, placed by the borrower’s ZIP code. Official establishments are businesses with payroll; the official counts leave out places with fewer than 3. These official figures cover all snack bars and retail bakeries, not only bakeries and dessert shops.
Population and households in the Flagstaff metro area
- Population, 2025 estimate
- 144,368−0.6% since 2020
- Households
- 55,118
- Median age
- 36.5
- Homes lived in by their owners
- 60%
- Vehicles per household
- 1.9
- Land area
- 18,616 sq. mi.
- People per square mile
- 8
- Median household income
- $72,966+22.7% vs. 2015–2019, before inflation
- Average household income
- $101,878
- Median home value
- $448,000
- Jobs located here
- 59,472
- Daytime population
- 148,186Residents who don’t work, plus everyone whose job is here
Looking at a specific site in the Flagstaff metro area?
These figures cover the whole metro area. A site report draws rings around one address and counts what’s inside them: households, spending, jobs, and the bakeries and dessert shops on map listings by name and distance.
Or open the report at the center of the Flagstaff metro area. Signed out, you see a blurred preview; on an account, each report is one action.
Free10 actions over 3 days, no cardBakeries and dessert shops across Arizona
Every Arizona market ranked →The highest-scoring metro areas in Arizona for bakeries and dessert shops, numbered among those based in Arizona, with the Flagstaff metro area marked.
Top metro areas in Arizona
| Market | Score | Listings | Per 10k households | Spending per listing | Population growth | U.S. rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ | 72 | 50 | 4.9 | $6.7M | +6.5% | #28 of 387 |
| 2Tucson, AZ | 67 | 266 | 6.1 | $6.1M | +2.8% | #56 of 387 |
| 3Prescott Valley-Prescott, AZ | 67 | 76 | 6.8 | $5.3M | +6.5% | #60 of 387 |
| 4Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ | 67 | 1,643 | 8.7 | $4.8M | +7.3% | #61 of 387 |
| 5Yuma, AZ | 60 | 60 | 7.6 | $4.4M | +9.2% | #120 of 387 |
| 6Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ | 46 | 37 | 7.3 | $4.6M | +0.6% | #232 of 387 |
| 7Flagstaff, AZ | 36 | 49 | 8.9 | $4.3M | −0.6% | #301 of 387 |
Other business types in the Flagstaff metro area
Each with its Groundwork market score here, out of 100, where it has one.
Food and drink
- Restaurants and cafes16
- Sit-down restaurants16
- Fast food and sandwich shops22
- Pizza29
- Coffee shops and cafes18
- Bakeries and dessert shops36
Groceries and convenience
Auto
Beauty and personal care
Fitness and classes
Health care
Child care
Clothing and laundry
Home services
Real estate
Funeral services
Questions
How many bakeries and dessert shops are in the Flagstaff, AZ metro area?
There are 49 bakeries and dessert shops on map listings in the Flagstaff metro area as of September 2026. 16 of them (33%) are chain locations. The listings count bakeries, ice cream, donut and dessert shops, candy stores. Official counts show 47 businesses with payroll classed as snack bars and retail bakeries in 2023, up 42.4% from 2019. That count covers all snack bars and retail bakeries (coffee shops and cafes included), not only bakeries and dessert shops. Another 6 one-person businesses have no payroll, by official counts.
How much do households in the Flagstaff, AZ metro area spend on food away from home?
About $210.8M a year, or $3,824 per household. That is 6% below the U.S. average (an index of 94, where 100 is the U.S. average). Spread across the 49 bakeries and dessert shops on map listings, it comes to $4.3M per shop. The spending figure covers all food away from home, not only bakeries and dessert shops. It is estimated from the incomes of the 55,118 households in the Flagstaff metro area and national spending patterns by income.
How does the Flagstaff, AZ metro area compare with the U.S. for bakeries and dessert shops?
The Flagstaff metro area has 8.9 bakeries and dessert shops per 10,000 households, 9% below the U.S. rate of 9.8. Spending per shop is $4.3M, 4% above the U.S. figure of $4.1M. At the national ratio of bakeries and dessert shops to household spending, the Flagstaff metro area would have about 51, against 49 on map listings. There is one business with payroll in the industry for every 1,173 households, against one for every 1,369 across the U.S. The official count rose 42.4% from 2019 to 2023, against +24.6% for the U.S.
How fast is the Flagstaff, AZ metro area growing?
Population estimates put the Flagstaff metro area at 144,368 people in 2025, down 0.6% since 2020, against +3.1% for the U.S. It has 55,118 households. Median household income in the Flagstaff metro area is $72,966, 10% below the U.S. median of $80,734. Against the 2015–2019 survey, the median rose 22.7%, before inflation.
What is the Groundwork market score?
The Groundwork market score runs from 0 to 100 and compares a market with others of its kind for one business type: states with states, metro areas with metro areas, small-town markets and counties with their own. It weighs household spending per competitor (35%), households per business with payroll (25%), population growth (20%) and spending power (20%), each ranked against those peers. A higher score means that, taken together, the market has more household spending and more households for each business already there, faster population growth and more spending per household than similar markets. It describes a market, not any one site or deal. The Flagstaff metro area scores 36 for bakeries and dessert shops (lower middle), #301 of 387 scored metro areas.
How can I see the market around a specific site?
Run a Groundwork site report on an address in the Flagstaff metro area. It maps the bakeries and dessert shops on map listings near the site and sizes the households and spending within the distance you choose. New accounts get 10 actions over 3 days, no card.
How the score works · Top markets for bakeries and dessert shops · All 56 business types in the Flagstaff metro area
Screening a site or an acquisition in the Flagstaff metro area?
A site report maps the competitors on map listings near an address and sizes the households and spending around it.
The button opens the report at the center of the Flagstaff metro area. Signed out, you see a blurred preview; on an account, each report is one action.
This product uses the Census Bureau Data API but is not endorsed or certified by the Census Bureau.
Figures are estimates for research only. Not investment or real estate advice.