Food and drink · Small-town market · Tennessee
Bakeries and dessert shops in the McMinnville, TN area
How the McMinnville, TN area compares with other small-town markets and the U.S. for bakeries and dessert shops: competitors, household spending, official counts and growth.
Groundwork market score · out of 100
Score 42 out of 100: Lower middle
Ranked #338 of 507 scored small-town markets
#13 of 16 scored small-town markets based in Tennessee
- Listings
- 15
- 2 chain locations (13%)
- Official establishments
- 8
- All snack bars and retail bakeries
- Household spending a year
- $50.8M
- On food away from home · $3,133 a household
- Spending per listing
- $3.4M
- 18% below the U.S.
- Listings per 10k households
- 9.3
- 5% below the U.S.
- Population, 2025
- 43,717
- +6.5% since 2020
See the bakeries and dessert shops around any address in the McMinnville area
The site report maps the bakeries and dessert shops on map listings near the address, by name and distance, and sizes the households and spending around it. Or open the report at the center of the McMinnville area. Signed out, you see a blurred preview; on an account, each report is one action.
Free10 actions over 3 days, no cardSurvey estimates 2020–2024 · population estimates 2025 · official business counts 2023 · map listings September 2026 · Data credits · How we measure
What this means
As of September 2026, map listings count 15 bakeries and dessert shops in the McMinnville area. Of those, 2 are chain locations, or 13%, against 35% across the U.S. That comes to 9.3 for every 10,000 households, 5% below the U.S. rate of 9.8.
Households in the McMinnville area spend about $50.8M a year on food away from home, or $3,133 per household, 23% below the U.S. average. That works out to $3.4M per shop, 18% below the U.S. figure of $4.1M. That spending covers all food away from home, which bakeries and dessert shops share with other businesses in the trade.
The official count of businesses with payroll classed as snack bars and retail bakeries in the McMinnville area was 8 in 2023. That is one for every 2,025 households, against one for every 1,369 across the U.S. The official count takes in all snack bars and retail bakeries, not only bakeries and dessert shops: coffee shops and cafes are counted too. Since fiscal 2022, 1 SBA-backed loan worth $1.3M has gone to businesses classed as snack bars and retail bakeries in the McMinnville area.
Population estimates show the McMinnville area grew 6.5% from 2020 to 2025, faster than the U.S. (+3.1%). For bakeries and dessert shops, the McMinnville area has a Groundwork market score of 42 (lower middle): #338 of 507 scored small-town markets and #13 of 16 scored small-town markets based in Tennessee.
How the McMinnville area compares
The same measures for Tennessee and the whole U.S. Spending per listing divides a year of household spending on all food away from home by the bakeries and dessert shops counted, so it measures the demand for each competitor, not any business’s revenue. Households per establishment does the same with the official count.
| Measure | McMinnville area | Tennessee | U.S. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Listings per 10k households | 9.3 | 8.2 | 9.8 |
| Spending per listing | $3.4M | $4.5M | $4.1M |
| Households per official establishment (all snack bars and retail bakeries) | 2,025 | 1,740 | 1,369 |
| Official establishment growth, 2019–2023 | n/a | +60.1% | +24.6% |
| Population growth, 2020–2025 | +6.5% | +5.6% | +3.1% |
| Spending per household on food away from home | $3,133 | $3,670 | $4,070 |
| Median household income | $55,487 | $69,595 | $80,734 |
| Groundwork market score | 42 | 56 |
Official counts and lending
Businesses
- Official establishments, 2019 to 2023
- 8All snack bars and retail bakeries
- Employees, 2023
- 36
- Annual payroll, 2023
- $466K
- One-person businesses, 2023
- 0All snack bars and retail bakeries with no payroll
- Map listings, September 2026
- 152 chain locations
- Listings at the U.S. rate for this spending
- 12The U.S. ratio of listings to household spending, applied here
SBA-backed loans since fiscal 2022
- Loans
- 1
- Amount
- $1.3M
SBA-backed loans to businesses classed as snack bars and retail bakeries in the McMinnville area, through June 2026, placed by the borrower’s ZIP code. Official establishments are businesses with payroll; the official counts leave out places with fewer than 3. These official figures cover all snack bars and retail bakeries, not only bakeries and dessert shops.
Population and households in the McMinnville area
- Population, 2025 estimate
- 43,717+6.5% since 2020
- Households
- 16,203
- Median age
- 40.4
- Homes lived in by their owners
- 72%
- Vehicles per household
- 2.1
- Land area
- 433 sq. mi.
- People per square mile
- 97
- Median household income
- $55,487+34.9% vs. 2015–2019, before inflation
- Average household income
- $74,703
- Median home value
- $192,900
- Jobs located here
- 12,649
- Daytime population
- 36,573Residents who don’t work, plus everyone whose job is here
Looking at a specific site in the McMinnville area?
These figures cover the whole small-town market. A site report draws rings around one address and counts what’s inside them: households, spending, jobs, and the bakeries and dessert shops on map listings by name and distance.
Or open the report at the center of the McMinnville area. Signed out, you see a blurred preview; on an account, each report is one action.
Free10 actions over 3 days, no cardBakeries and dessert shops across Tennessee
Every Tennessee market ranked →The highest-scoring small-town markets in Tennessee for bakeries and dessert shops, numbered among those based in Tennessee, with the McMinnville area marked.
Top small-town markets in Tennessee
| Market | Score | Listings | Per 10k households | Spending per listing | Population growth | U.S. rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Shelbyville, TN | 77 | 13 | 6.7 | $5.2M | +9.7% | #24 of 507 |
| 2Fayetteville, TN | 74 | 10 | 6.7 | $5.1M | +4.3% | #36 of 507 |
| 3Greeneville, TN | 73 | 13 | 4.6 | $6.9M | +5.0% | #37 of 507 |
| 4Athens, TN | 73 | 14 | 5.3 | $6.3M | +8.2% | #38 of 507 |
| 5Crossville, TN | 72 | 15 | 5.3 | $6M | +8.0% | #44 of 507 |
| 6Winchester, TN | 66 | 11 | 6.3 | $5.4M | +6.4% | #83 of 507 |
| 7Newport, TN | 65 | 7 | 4.5 | $6.4M | +5.1% | #91 of 507 |
| 8Tullahoma-Manchester, TN | 56 | 18 | 7.0 | $4.7M | +7.3% | #189 of 507 |
| 9Paris, TN | 53 | 10 | 7.4 | $4.1M | +2.3% | #225 of 507 |
| 10Lawrenceburg, TN | 52 | 14 | 8.2 | $3.9M | +6.2% | #235 of 507 |
| 13McMinnville, TN | 42 | 15 | 9.3 | $3.4M | +6.5% | #338 of 507 |
Other business types in the McMinnville area
Each with its Groundwork market score here, out of 100, where it has one.
Food and drink
- Restaurants and cafes66
- Sit-down restaurants59
- Fast food and sandwich shops58
- Pizza73
- Coffee shops and cafes66
- Bakeries and dessert shops42
Groceries and convenience
Auto
Beauty and personal care
Fitness and classes
Health care
Child care
Clothing and laundry
Home services
Real estate
Funeral services
Questions
How many bakeries and dessert shops are in the McMinnville, TN area?
The McMinnville area has 15 bakeries and dessert shops on map listings as of September 2026. 2 of them (13%) are chain locations. The listings count bakeries, ice cream, donut and dessert shops, candy stores. Official counts show 8 businesses with payroll classed as snack bars and retail bakeries in 2023. That count covers all snack bars and retail bakeries (coffee shops and cafes included), not only bakeries and dessert shops.
How much do households in the McMinnville, TN area spend on food away from home?
About $50.8M a year, or $3,133 per household. That is 23% below the U.S. average (an index of 77, where 100 is the U.S. average). Spread across the 15 bakeries and dessert shops on map listings, it comes to $3.4M per shop. The spending figure covers all food away from home, not only bakeries and dessert shops. It is estimated from the incomes of the 16,203 households in the McMinnville area and national spending patterns by income.
How does the McMinnville, TN area compare with the U.S. for bakeries and dessert shops?
The McMinnville area has 9.3 bakeries and dessert shops per 10,000 households, 5% below the U.S. rate of 9.8. Spending per shop is $3.4M, 18% below the U.S. figure of $4.1M. At the national ratio of bakeries and dessert shops to household spending, the McMinnville area would have about 12, against 15 on map listings. There is one business with payroll in the industry for every 2,025 households, against one for every 1,369 across the U.S.
How fast is the McMinnville, TN area growing?
Population estimates put the McMinnville area at 43,717 people in 2025, up 6.5% since 2020, faster than the U.S. (+3.1%). It has 16,203 households. Median household income in the McMinnville area is $55,487, 31% below the U.S. median of $80,734. Against the 2015–2019 survey, the median rose 34.9%, before inflation.
What is the Groundwork market score?
The Groundwork market score runs from 0 to 100 and compares a market with others of its kind for one business type: states with states, metro areas with metro areas, small-town markets and counties with their own. A small-town market is a town of 10,000 to 50,000 people and the county or counties tied to it by commuting. It weighs household spending per competitor (35%), households per business with payroll (25%), population growth (20%) and spending power (20%), each ranked against those peers. A higher score means that, taken together, the market has more household spending and more households for each business already there, faster population growth and more spending per household than similar markets. It describes a market, not any one site or deal. The McMinnville area scores 42 for bakeries and dessert shops (lower middle), #338 of 507 scored small-town markets.
How can I see the market around a specific site?
Run a Groundwork site report on an address in the McMinnville area. It maps the bakeries and dessert shops on map listings near the site and sizes the households and spending within the distance you choose. New accounts get 10 actions over 3 days, no card.
How the score works · Top markets for bakeries and dessert shops · All 56 business types in the McMinnville area
Screening a site or an acquisition in the McMinnville area?
A site report maps the competitors on map listings near an address and sizes the households and spending around it.
The button opens the report at the center of the McMinnville area. Signed out, you see a blurred preview; on an account, each report is one action.
This product uses the Census Bureau Data API but is not endorsed or certified by the Census Bureau.
Figures are estimates for research only. Not investment or real estate advice.